All of humanity could share a prosperous, equal future but the space for progress is shrinking fast under pressure from a wealthy minority of ultra-consumers, a groundbreaking study has shown.
Growing environmental degradation and climate instability have pushed Earth beyond a series of safe planetary boundaries, say authors from the Earth Commission, but it remains possible to carve out a “safe and just space” that will allow everyone to thrive.
That utopian outcome depends on a radical transformation of global politics, economics and society to ensure a fairer distribution of resources, a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels and the widespread use of low -carbon, sustainable technology and lifestyle, it said.
This likely means that limits need to be placed on overconsumption and taxes need to be used to address inequality and raise revenue for investment in technology and infrastructure.
The scale of the change required would alarm many governments, one of the lead authors acknowledged. “It will not be accepted immediately. To some extent, this is frightening, but it shows that there is still room for humans and other species,” said Joyeeta Gupta, a former co-chair of the Earth Commission and a professor of environment and development in the global south at the University of Amsterdam.
The paper is a 62-page “thought experiment” by an international team of 65 natural and social scientists that aims to map how the world’s 7.9 billion people can stay within the planet’s safe boundaries while accessing the necessary levels of food, water, energy, shelter. and transportation. It then projects how this might change by 2050, when the population is likely to be 9.7 billion people.
Published in the Lancet Planetary Health journal on Wednesday, the paper is the first to set a justice “floor” of basic daily living standards – defined as 2,500 calories of food, 100 liters of water, and 0.7kWh of electricity, with a living area of ​​15 square meters and an annual transport of 4,500km (2,800 miles). They then calculated how much space there is between this and a safety “ceiling” – defined by the planet’s boundaries – which estimates how much humanity can push the climate, ecosystems, nutrients and phosphorus and sources of water without stabilizing the Earth’s systems.
The results showed that under the current highly unequal, fossil-fuel intensive social and environmental conditions, it is now impossible for all people to live healthily within this “safe and just corridor”. That is underscored by previous studies showing that seven of the eight planetary boundaries have already been breached.
The poor are less affected. The paper identifies locations around the world where populations are most vulnerable to damage from climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution and water scarcity. These include India, where about 1 billion people live on degraded land; Indonesia, where 194 million people are exposed to unsafe levels of nitrogen; and Brazil, where 79 million people are exposed to unsafe and unjustifiable levels of air pollution. In China, India and Pakistan, more than 200 million people are also exposed to dangerously high wet-bulb temperatures with global climate warming of between 1C and 2C above preindustrial levels.
It can be avoided. The study says that a safe and just space is still theoretically possible today by reducing resource use by the top 15% of the largest emitters and rapidly adopting renewable energy and other sustainable technologies.
The longer change is delayed, the more difficult the challenge in the coming years, particularly with regard to climate. “If significant changes are not made now, by 2050 there will be nothing safe and nothing but space left. That means that, even if everyone on the planet only has access to the resources needed for a basic standard of living by 2050, the Earth will still be outside the climate boundary,” the report warns.
“The ceiling is so low and the floor is so high that you cannot crawl through that space,” said Johan Rockström, co-chair of the Earth Commission and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. He said this “shocking” result should be used as a stimulus for immediate remedial action.
Greater equity is an important part of the paper’s proposed solutions. “Limiting what is possible for some people allows the opening of possibilities for others,” the report said. This indicates that individuals in economic systems that prioritize public health, equality and democracy tend to have lower levels of consumption. By limiting demand, it estimates that emissions can be reduced by 40-80% and have a greater positive impact on human well-being.
How to achieve these goals is addressed, with measures including progressive and enforceable taxation, graduated resource pricing, land use planning, green technologies, and subsidies for sustainable products.
The paper emphasizes that the best opportunities for change in the near term are at the city and business level, which are likely to be more nimble than national governments and less dependent on vested corporate interests. But in the longer term, they cited the UN secretary general’s calls for a global consensus agreement and reform of the UN into a more effective Earth governance regulatory body that would enshrine minimum rights of access to resources and develop safe and fair rules.
The authors say that the current global situation of worsening inequality and rising nationalist politics may not seem conducive to achieving the just and safe plan laid out, but governments can change and so can public opinion. – especially in times of increasing climate stress.
“So this science is important to remind everyone that you must take justice seriously, because otherwise it will return in terms of social instability, migration and conflict. If you are a patriot who wants to reduce the flow of migration, you better take global justice seriously,” Rockström said. “Justice is an important part of safety – and safety is an important part of justice.”
#Consumerism #climate #crisis #threaten #equitable #future #humanity #report